No one with ‘2020 vision’ could have predicted how the world would have been turned upside down in 2020 as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. But as we look towards 2021, ironically, we have more certainty than before. We now know—even with the rolling out of mass vaccination—that the economic impact of the virus will be around for the next year and beyond. Yet that greater certainty will be little consolation for workers and their unions, because it will generate yet more downward pressure on jobs, pay and conditions. And when Britain leaves the European Union on 31 December, it will likely further aggravate these circumstances.

The cliff-edge of the end of the furlough scheme has only been put back until the end of April 2021. It has not been removed. And, with economic contraction being the greatest in 300 years and levels of economic activity not set to return to pre-pandemic levels until 2022, mass unemployment will grow and stay around for some time. The latest figures show that in November there were 820,000 fewer employees in work than in February this year.

Such levels of unemployment will keep wage rises in check, much to employers’ satisfaction. Predicted to remain at around 2% in 2021, this will represent a further reduction in the value of real wages since the global financial crisis of 2008-’09. In the public sector, other than for health workers, effective pay freezes will continue as Johnson’s Conservative government seeks to reduce the public sector deficit.

In the private sector, there are likely to be many more attempts by employers to ‘fire and rehire’ on worse terms and conditions as British Airways, British Gas, Heineken, and Heathrow Airport have already begun to do. Such labour market conditions are unlikely to be changed by any Brexit bounce. Predictions of labour shortages as a result of closing off entry to EU nationals are wide of the mark, especially given the further economic dislocation that a ‘hard Brexit’ will give rise to.

Union membership has had mixed fortunes in 2020. Some unions have seen significant surges in new members joining as a result of Covid-19 while others have seen huge falls, depending on which sectors they tend to organise most in. So, how do unions face up to these challenges in the year ahead? Although it might sound rather glib, they need to look back to their pasts in order to understand how to mobilise their members for collective action on both the industrial and political fronts. In 2021, the battles will necessarily be defensive ones.

Strikes will pick up again next year from their new low point in 2020. But this will be relatively slight. Just as importantly, striking alone cannot hope to stop redundancies. Standing outside on a socially-distanced picket line will be no substitute for seizing the plant, machinery, stock and property of the employer through occupations. Only that kind of action will give workers the leverage they need to bargain with their bosses.

Targeting the upstream and downstream suppliers of one’s employer will take on an added importance as well so that unions will have up their game on leverage campaigns. Much can be learned here not just from Unite, but also from a raft of new, smaller unions like the IWGB and United Voices of the World (UVW) who have recorded success in gaining insourcing and worker status.

In the political sphere, and despite current high poll ratings, the struggle to use the Labour Party to help represent union members’ interests will be a hard one given the Starmer leadership and its battle against the Left. The changes in leaderships in the three major unions—the GMB, UNISON, and Unite—in the coming year will have an important bearing on this.

In particular, it will be interesting to see what Unite does with its promise to start using the money it is no longer going to be giving to Labour to ‘support and nurture the newer voices in our movement [through] talented thinkers and energetic organisations‘. It may be joined by others like the CWU, FBU, and BFAWU unions in similar initiatives.

Obvious recipients of such support would be community-based organisations. Rather than argue for taking failing businesses into public ownership (which effectively bails out the bosses), union-backed campaigns may also be the ones to advocate turning empty shop units on our high streets into safe and secure social housing.

So, 2021 will be another hard year for union members and their unions. But the work they do this coming year can help prepare the ground for being bolder and stronger as conditions improve in the years that follow.